Wednesday, 24 December 2008
Raising more questions than it answered...
Monday, 22 December 2008
Tip Off Pays Off...
Now at first I thought "Shit!" as this was similar in execution, but then I realised it had many serious flaws...
First, I hadn't heard of it. This lack of awareness was a serious problem for them (and a bonus to me!). I have been hunting on the Internet for approximately 18 months for exactly these type of things, and only found it now. You would need to know what you were looking for to find it, and they have (as yet) not found a way to breakthrough their awareness. I believe that my awareness will be built at Point of Purchase of a related product as an ancillary service
Second of all, the route to consumer is completely different (and I believe flawed) compared to mine. The chosen route for this competitor means that they have a more direct relationship with the consumer, but that is a problem for three reasons - one is that there is insufficient awareness (see point one above); secondly, I believe that the direct relationship with the consumer is the wrong relationship to establish, as the consumer will struggle to connect with the product in a relatively sterile environment, whereas I believe that by involving another party (which involves, unfortunately offering the other party margin!) the consumer will be fully connected and more likely to use the product. And possibly the third (and biggest) reason is that their costs to serve will probably be higher than mine - this may seem counter intuitive, as one would expect a direct relationship to be more profitable, but in this instance their cash collection rates will be higher as they are outsourcing their cash collection through a third party and only maintaining a maximum of 60%), who in turn will charge significantly more than the margin my retailers expect to make.
The third main flaw for this competitor is their pricing is between 250% and 800% more expensive than mine (depending upon how I can resolve the cost of goods issue).
Fourthly is that for some bizarre reason, they have restricted themselves to a specific category in a very wide market opportunity. Now this represents several million opportunities in totality but is only 1% of the total market, so it is very very limited whereas I believe mine is much much wider.
So in summary a good idea, broadly in line with mine, and the big differences are that I've come at mine from a commercial point of view whereas I think they have come about it from a technology / addressing a specific need without seeing the broad appeal of their idea and then thinking it through from there.
P.S. One thought that enters my head is perhaps to approach them to perhaps see about using their systems to support my idea in the short term...
My time machine... set the dials for 2016
One of the tools was for me to paint a picture of a time in the future that was relevant to me. This was my first big challenge... when in my future life was I going to be measured? This was part of the problem... I didn't know where I was going and didn't have a goal set for the future, so couldn't then work towards it. So in the end, I plumped for (randomly!) 7 years time in 2016...
I was then invited to brainstorm what the future held for me and then to reflect back upon that future to this time and place, generating a list of what had happened by 2016. Once I completed the list, I was invited to then prioritise my list, and my coach then interrogated & really challenged my priority of these items (but not the items on the list) and what became clear was that some were not the priority I thought they were and some were linked by cause & effect.
It was an emotional experience, especially the realisation of the shadow of my dad that I have created in my life, even at my age now. I don't think it will be the last experience with a life coach (as I've got many other issues needing to be resolved, e.g. self limiting behaviour...) and thus far its been very very helpful...
So I thought I would share with you the glimpse I have into this future with my list in order of importance...
- I am on a path/direction for the future. I have clarity.
- I feel stable; I have roots. I continue to be close to my friends. We are emotionally close, involved in each others lives; my family is their family and vice versa.
- I have felt challenged and successful at meeting that challenge – this is my destiny.
- I am financially secure – if I have an idea, I can go and do it; I am not constrained.
- I am challenged by my father and have met that challenge and he respects me for that.
- I am a catalyst eg. helping people take an idea through to selling a product.
- I have broadened my skills, professionally and personally.
- I am having fun.
- I have brought fun and happiness into peoples lives.
- I have helped other people (either directly or indirectly) as an inspiration.
- I am set up to be emotionally, financially and physically supportive of my mother.
- I am healthy and active.
- I am married with children. I have found someone who wants to challenge me, who I perceive is (at least) equal to me, emotionally secure, respects me and accepts my challenge.
- As a leader, people have met their own potential including myself.
- I own at least one property – possibly London, Italy and Scotland.
Sunday, 21 December 2008
Nothing Ventured
We discussed many things including sources of finance and developments on my idea, and I thought I would give you a flavour of our discussions, but leave the details on my gorgeous ravioli for another time...
SOURCES OF FINANCE
Basically Charlie and most VC's don't get out of bed for anything less than £2m! And this £2m is not the total, but probably more than likely just the start of seed capital. And luckily for me, VC is one way to get funding, but not the only way.
He suggested a couple of sources of finance...
Family & Friends - using friends & family to contribute sufficient funding to get to the next level, such as banks, Venture Capitalists by proving the viability of your concept (either by actually producing the physical idea or by researching the concept with users).
Banks - through a number of different ways banks can help start the ball rolling. They can offer personal overdrafts or perhaps credit cards can offer a solution. They can also be approached for loans for equipment or other assets. The government's small firm loan guarantee scheme may be an option to consider.
Grants - A list of grants is available through Grantnet or through the Government which has an array of funds available but also in most cases requires matching private sector finance. European funding is also available through http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/funding/index.htm or http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/entrepreneurship/financing/index_en.htm
Third Parties, like Business Angels who are individuals willing to invest start up cash in return for a share of ownership in these companies... its a bit like Dragon's Den...
Local Enterprise Agencies - these are quasi public bodies throughout the UK that support and sometimes finance local business and start-ups. They may be able to help across a number of areas... helping to find premises, marketing & sales support, consulting, training and counselling - the NFEA will help you find your local Enterprise Agency. Business Link is the probably the best place to start to find out general information
DEVELOPMENTS ON MY IDEA
I pitched my idea to him over lunch in a straightforward way and, in his eyes, this was a "niche" idea, especially as it wasn't developing breakthrough technology or radically changing the economics of it all. Now part of me at the time was like "Niche? I'll give you niche!" but I think what he was meaning was that it was specific to a certain field and a certain area. He's probably looking at fields which are broad in their use like bio-technology or electronics - both of which have much wider opportunities.
One thing he did start to point out was that my level of experience in starting up a business is limited and the industry into which I am plunging I know relatively little about, and he suggested that I gain some kind of support either directly with a partner who has background in this type of area or perhaps a mentor who can guide me through some of the ups & downs. Not a bad idea for the future...
He also suggested looking at different sources of income and also different sources of supply. Income was an interesting one as he thought the key was in offering my product for as little as possible, perhaps even free and fund the cost through advertising or selling data. Both of these revenue streams I had considered in the past but am not confident they will cover my costs never mind actually offer margin for myself or for the retailer. Definitely one to consider in the future to help improve my margins over the long term.
As for sources of supply, this was actually a key thought about how I can get from where I am now to where I want to be. I am testing my product by using a bodged method of different components and perhaps by using a third party's systems I can reduce my per unit costs until such times as i reach a critical mass and can spin this out on my own. The other great benefit of this is great expertise
I asked him about how people pitch their ideas to him. Generally with an "elevator" pitch of 2 sides of A4, and then, if he likes or is intrigued by the idea he invites them for a follow up meeting with a short 40 or so slide presentation. A business plan is not critical but it can help.
So all in all, I found the meeting pretty helpful, though I did leave in a bit of doubt. Doubt about what was the right way to finance and other income streams to consider But at least I know that VC is not for me...Wednesday, 17 December 2008
Sum of all fears
It was recently suggested that I should focus on what keeps me awake at night on my little project so I can bring to life my fears and face them down.
I feel I have lots of fears, and that in some way these fears are holding me back in some shape or form. The following is not an exhaustive nor thought-through list, but just a list at precissely this point in time...
I fail completely - I've put a great deal of emotional energy into my idea and told lots of people that I want to start my own business. And that's deliberate to keep me motivated and commited to the idea. But the other side of that commitment benefit is the risk of embarrassment and failure.
I lose money - I've already put in quite a bit of cash into my idea. Not big, life changing amounts of cash, but the several hundred of pounds here and there, that would have gone on more interesting things. The real worry is that I lose other people's money (should I be able to / need to get people to invest).
My business doesn't live up to my expectations - My business doesn't give me the challenge, rewards, prosperity, confidence in my future that I expect. This is the biggest worry I have - that I get to the destination and realise I don't enjoy it.
Somebody else nicks it before I've started - this was for a long time my big worry, but as time has gone on it has regressed p[artly because there have been other people out there with a similar idea but just nnot the same execution.
Somebody else produces a ME Too once I've started - now this really is a worry, but I hope that by keeping my costs low and having a great offer, that the chance of a ME2 starting is reduced. I also hope that by designing my terms & conditions that it would become less appealing for others to come along and immediately nick my customers.
I can't meet demand - I worry that I've not got enough resource (cash, people, time) to meet any rush (hark at me!) and I miss the opportunity...
I can't find anybody to stock it - this is a real worry. I don't have any direct experience in the market I'm in, but I'm confident I've found a proposition that works for them. But its still a risk and I worry that my ignorance means I'm doomed for disaster.
Its too expensive and nobody buys it - again another little worry that its just not perceived as being value for money.
I don't enjoy it - similar to the one about it not meeting my expectations, in that I really just don't enjoy running my own business and struggle to get motivated
I lose support - again similar to the first one about being a failure that I worry that my friends & family think less of me for trying and failing.
I can't get the start up capital - right now in the middle of recession, this really is a big worry for me. I could have a great idea, lots of energy and passion to start something but not a penny to get after it. I don't know how I would cope with that as it would be massively frustrating...
I lose my job - my plan is to go on sabatical to offset a risk of my business failing but there could be potential that I lose my job before or after my sabatical. Either of those would bring about a big decision to be made.
I'm sure that those are only some of the fears I have and I'm not sure I'm really facing them, but a bit of denial goes a long way...
Victor Charlie gets a free lunch
I'm hoping he can answer the following questions...
- What is the process for getting funding?
- Which are the right funds to approach and how do you get to find them? How do you get a meeting with them?
- How do they decide which projects to invest behind?
- What are the key things they are looking for?
- What is the most appropriate way to value a business? Is it a Discounted Cash Flow on mythical numbers?
- What will I have to concede in terms of ownership?
- How much will I have to invest myself?
- How long does it take to secure funding?
- What is the view on taking a sabatical from work rather than being truely free?
- Can I draw a regular salary from the company or will I have to be self-sufficient?
I'm not expecting to pitch to him or to present any of my ideas, just to chat through these questsions in return for him enjoying his free lunch...
Monday, 8 December 2008
The force is strong with this one
Wind out of my sails
And the last 5 weeks or so has been exactly that. The wind has genuinely dropped out of my sails. I had had the wind & sun on my back for several weeks, and I suppose looking back on it now, it was bound to happen.
What has happened is a reflection upon a few things...
I had lost a bit of momentum back at the end of September (may be even before) when I was struggling to find a retailer to run my test (I think the number of blog articles I write might actually be proportional to my level of momentum & motivation - the more motivated I am, the more I want to share my thoughts in this blog, and charting it as I have in the picture seems to be in line with how I was feeling... anyway...). But I had knuckled down to find a solution, which I did find, but it meant it delayed me longer than I expected, and meant that during my break from work, where I should have been focused on delivering the test, I was busy setting up the test. So timing was against me!
I then started back doing my day job, just as I had agreed my test, and struggled to find the time to administer the test! My timing issue had caught up with me, and was now biting me on my backside.
On top of this I had budgeted to test in one outlet, so having twice as many outlets that I bargained for, presented a risk that quite frankly I couldn't cover if my product really took off.
So all in all, I had lost my way, lost my momentum.
But luckily for me, my buddy was on an up curve, and he has set me up to see a Venture Capitalist in the coming weeks so I can understand a bit more about the next big steps in the plan.
And that has injected a bit more life back into me, its re-built my desire and filled my sails. I now need to get the Point of Sale sorted, to get the test sorted out and get the results in, so that when I meet the VC I have some evidence of the potential of this idea. So need to get action planning...
Monday, 3 November 2008
Domains Annoymous
I need to get off this addiction...
I now seem to be in a frame of mind which is constantly coming up with business ideas. So far I've come up with TWO Internet dating sites; a mobile phone application; a consultancy for new business start-ups; a golf range; a couple of pub ideas and a nationwide "Business Buddy" network application. And that's before I've had my dinner...
And I have already bought some domain names for some of the ideas mentioned above, even before I've built up the Big Idea, concept or even a business plan.
On chatting with my business buddy the other evening we both realised that we are now seeing the world through a different lens... a lens of opportunity.. a lens of ideas that have yet to come to life...
And the only thing that is really stopping both of us with all these other ideas is a combination of cash to play with and time. I think if one of us has a success, then both of us would then end up just coming up with ideas and chasing down these ideas with more energy.
But for now I am left with my addiction to buying domain names... I think I own 20 now...
Patience is a virgin
I'm not really a patient person, yet others perceive that I am. I feel I get frustrated quite quickly about myself & my ideas and give up before others do. I am easily my fiercest critic.
The classic case is where I had given up hope and then 10 minutes later hope had been restored. But it happens all the time, and not just with my ideas or with work.
I sometimes call this "the darkest hour" as I always think its over just before I turn the corner. And I suppose the good thing is I am learning that about myself and therefore spending slightly longer to make sure I truly am giving things enough time. That I truly am getting the best perspective.
Today my patience is beginning to wear thin about my funding for this stage of my idea... certain commitments have been made by others, but at this stage they are not forthcoming, despite me chasing them down. But then again they have stressed they will know more by Tuesday, so may be I shouldn't panic...
Pateience & determination I think are the keys to unlock the opoprtunities... I just need to remember the "darkest hour" and not give up all hope just yet...
Saturday, 25 October 2008
Once a show stopper... now an opportunity
I had made some assumptions about my cost structure based on Internet searches, so when I finally got round to talking to one of the main suppliers in the UK today he said I couldn't reach that level of pricing. I could of course source supply from outside of the UK, but he pointed out that this would not stand up to the quality that I require for my idea. So it looks like my cost structure is now THREE times higher than I expected.
Now, this is the bit where I recognise I have changed through this whole process...
If I had heard that news 18 months ago when I was first researching this idea, I think I would have shut up shop and forgot about this idea. But now, I think to myself how can I overcome this obstacle; how can this make my idea better; etc...
And the funny thing is, I think it has made it better. I've now had the jolt for me to revisit the actual size & packaging of my idea. I'm coming round to the idea to re-package my idea into a "bundles" set up, where you can buy smaller denominations of my product depending upon your need rather than the one size fits all package I had previously tried to create. This means I can keep the per unit price at a great headline price, and flex the appeal of my idea to a wider number of users, rather than just the average.
And its the same for my buddy... he doesn't see his increased costs as a big issue - its just means he needs to be a bit more creative in his pricing, and possibly means he needs to position his product in a more premium sector with more premium appeal.
Friday, 24 October 2008
Monte Carlo or bust
This isn't the first time I've come across a Monte Carlo Simulation, as a Finance geek I used to work with (we used to call him the Temple of Doom!) used it to stress the probabilities of success for hitting our finance targets - he persuaded the company to buy a very sophisticated software package that I seem to recall was several hundred if not a thousand pounds, but anyway it looked amazing and told us all what we already knew - that we were not going to hit our targets!
Anyhow, my Sim has been used to "test the robustness" of my business model.
So I've taken my top down model (Total number of current users x Awareness x Trial x Distribution x Gross profit per unit) and run that 15,000 times with random numbers every time in each element of the model, e.g. Awareness.
Now at this stage its just a stack of numbers, so then comes the "fun" bit... the analysis. And this is the bit where I have to confess to not knowing exactly what I'm doing... (I should have kept awake during that one term of Stats I did at Uni!). But what I think I am doing is building a histogram using a function in Excel called Frequency which tells me the number of instances that the random numbers in my model have generated an answer within a set band level, i.e. bins. All very interesting I hear you cry...
Well I won't bore you with the detail on the guts of the model, but basically my Sim shows a range of possibilities for my business model, from £0 to £30m. The mean seems to be in the £8m ish range (give or take several hundred thousand pounds!) while the mode is in the £4m ish range. The standard deviation is £10m ish, and the Standard Error is under £100k. So what???
Now whilst it is possible that my business idea (if successful!) could hit £30m plus it is more probable than not to be significantly less than that, which has dented a bit of my enthusiasm. But still £2m is better than a kick in the teeth!
I've found building my Sim very stimulating and I already feel that it has been worthwhile for me as it has started me thinking about moving away from the big scale launch and more towards a slow burn launch. I think I will now use my little Sim a little more often now to see the effects of randomness on a whole range of things...
The image above is from Rolf Hicker
Sunday, 19 October 2008
Uping the ante
And then the phone rang... my god! I had given up hope that my advertisement would deliver anything. So I'm trying to sound vaguely professional on the phone to a customer in the middle of a bustling tea shop at lunch time on a Wednesday, with clattering cups all around me. For some reason the customer didn't seem that distracted and was willing to see me the next day.
Suddenly I had to get my skates on... no more dilly dallying... I need to finish the proposition, print off some point of sale examples, and prepare for the meeting. Oh and I had to work out the customers location... Bollox! He's in deepest darkest bumpkinville! Why can't he be in glamorous west London???!
After bouncing the proposition off my business buddy, I went to bed trembling with a mixture of excitement of fear & hope. Hope that this would work. That this would be the breakthrough moment I had hoped for. That this would prove one way or another that my idea was good. But what happened if the customer didn't like it? Arghhh... My dreams were riding on the next 16 hours. Perhaps my whole life was being decided by the next few hours.
I met up with the customer (after a long & eventful trip!) and delivered my proposition. I could tell there was mild curiosity but was not getting a strong buying signals from him about if he really wanted this product. Looking back on it now, I think I had over sold it to him. I had made it too specific to his profession when in actual fact it was much simpler & wider than he was thinking. We chatted a bit more, and then I realised he didn't know I was offering him a no lose situation - basically I was going to guarantee his level of sales by a couple of hundred pounds AND he didn't have to buy anything off me. Suddenly his demeanour changed. He started to ask questions about how to make it work as opposed to the preceeding questions about its purpose and what was wrong with it. He had seen the opportunity - this was my chance.
He now unbelievably offered me more - his brother also ran the same sort of business and offered me an introduction to him, and he worked just up the road. Would I be interested in seeing him. I took the opportunity and this time made the sell far more simple. It was for everybody, not just a specifif type of person. I tapped into a general need rather than a specific condition! His brother really bought into it and started asking me lots of questions about how it worked, giving me loads of buying signals. In actual fact he made some additional suggestions about the product which I was like "why didn't I think of that?" and "He really wants that - that's loads of value to him, but little cost to me" (the Oxo cube / Treasure Chest scenario).
So I left there in a bit of haze. Both guys were up for the test. Both wanted additional things. Both had called my bluff. Now I had to deliver. Where would I get the Point of Sale? Where would I get a secure website? ARGGGGHHHH!!! Why do I always fly by the seat of my pants!!!!
Afterwards I spoke to my business buddy and he was over the moon. Our theory of making the first £100 was vindicated. I knew I couldn´t have done it without him, as every time he progressed I felt I had to push on, which in turn made me progress and in turn made him push on.
As if to confirm the feeling of constantly upping the ante, he emailed me the following day "I can't tell you how great it was to hear that your meeting went well. That is a truely momentous step!... it's my turn next to step up to the plate."
This is now a game of poker where both players could & should actually win the pot!
Wednesday, 15 October 2008
Frustrating Times
I have now started cold calling outlets to help me trial my new product, even though I've tried that before, and funnily enough I'm still hitting closed doors.
On top of that very real frustration at getting knocked back is the frustration that a great deal depends on this trial, that this trial would give me a breakthrough on my journey.
And this is the point where I really need breakthrough, even though I not sure it really ever happens like that. This trial will unlock a whole number of doors that have remained resolutely closed till now, and, I hope, present more doors to open once they themselves have been opened.
I know what the test will give me in the sense of objectives, but most importantly it will give me a sense of progression which in turn will build my confidence about my idea and about myself.
I am feeling massively frustrated. I just can't find an angle into these retailers, and it gets even more frustrating as I know just how much is riding on this.
And what is riding on this is my idea that I have nurtured for 18 months. Its my reputation as I have told people I am starting my own business. Its my self belief and confidence as I have told myself I can do this. Its my dreams of the life I want. So not much then...
And the trial gives me a chance to see if all of those things are possible, and so far I'm struggling even to ask the questions to the customers...
Thursday, 9 October 2008
Going Schizo!!!
And for the last week, I have been both of these types of people.
I've had a week off my day job so I can focus on starting up the test and see how it goes. I have relied on one route rather than chasing it down, and I'm beginning to face the consequences of that decision. I had really thought this through and thought it would be easier than it actually has been in the last 7 days (despite me spending hard cash to chase the game!). So I've been a bit of a thicko on that one...
But never mind just being thick - with my week off I thought I would be chasing leads down, making things happen, but in reality what I've been down is chasing my own tail. I've had long lies and pottered about the flat, and then disaster yesterday when I succumbed & bought a PlayStation 3! Now all my good intentions have been destroyed.
So all day today I have been cursing myself for being truly lazy and a bit thick, but I have resolved that I will shake my commitment up tomorrow... in time to go on a stag weekend in Ireland.
P.S. I am prone to making sweeping generalisations, and I know that people don't fall into JUST two main groups... there's at least 7!
Monday, 6 October 2008
Monday Blues...
The first step of my test isn't even finished yet and I'm already feeling a bit glum. I was kind of hoping to be inaundated with questions at least. But all I've had thus far is 5 visits to my website and 1 call.
Now that call was interesting... it was from a guy that sounded promising until I asked if he had taken part in tests before, to which he said "Yes" as he had a sister company that he had tested things on their part before. Curious, I took a look at his site. Now it wasn't even close to being a competitor but I think its just too close to actually test with him, so I think I'll leave it for now...
So may be this is just another "darkest hour before the dawn" moments... we shall see!
Monday, 29 September 2008
No going back...
I have now bought into the game. I have made my investment in my test and I await to find out if this first instalment will pay off.
I know its either one of two things - its either a first instalment or my final instalment in this particular idea.
I actually know its not going to be my final instalment as I have already made other commitments to this idea over & above the £468, in web domains and building my first website.
As an aside, how addictive is buying web domains? I think I ended up buying 12 domains, and some of them were just for the hell of it! Keep me away from those damned domains...
"Geology is the study of pressure and time. That's all it takes really, pressure, and time"
Anyway, the reason for the quote is it recently resonated with me.
For what seems like an age, I've been chipping away at this idea, sometimes not feeling I have been making any progress and losing my confidence in the roller coaster of thinking I'm close to breaking through one moment, the next worrying about something falling down on top of me.
And what I've come to realise is that progress does not come all at once, but rather more incrementally, step by step over the course of a period of time. I have progressed my ideas somewhat since I first thought of them, and all of that is thanks to just applying pressure over a period of time.
With a nod to the film, its important not to lose hope and to make the most of the circumstances in which you find yourself whilst also applying the pressure constantly over however long a period of time it takes.
Saturday, 27 September 2008
"We will either find a way, or make one!" - Hannibal
His patent search had revealed that in February of this year a patent had been granted for his own idea to an individual in the US. The world started to cave in, and we were back on the rollercoaster.... arghhh!!! We'd both put in so much time and now this goes & happens...
But there are two ways to look at this - either its over so we pack up now or we dig in and make another way. And I am for the former.
At the least now we know where we are - there's no need to go through the hassle of applying for a patent, and we could enquire about licensing the idea for outside of the US and get cracking on it. Or perhaps we could even buy it from the guy - may be he doesn't know what he's got on his hands...
I'm also feeling confident as at least somebody else has had the idea and subsequently gone through the hassle & cost because they believe in the idea so much.
So, we'll see how his thoughts & feelings have progressed when we ctach up during the week... hopefully he's as gung-ho as me.
Saturday, 20 September 2008
How to develop a BIG IDEA...
But I just think there's something more to it and I'm actually not sure exactly what the BIG IDEA behind it is... So I suggested trying to find this BIG IDEA by answering a number of simple questions and thought they might be of interest for others...
- Who is the consumer? Can you bring this person to life? Could you map out a week in there life?
- What are your consumers’ needs? What is the insight?
- Where / how do they get these needs fulfilled currently?
- What functional need does this idea meet? i.e. what does this idea do for me?
- What emotional need does this idea meet? i.e what does this idea make me feel?
- What is different about it? Is it new? cheaper? better?
- When would it be used?
- How would it be used?
- What three words could you use to describe this idea?
Now, assuming you can answer these questions to some degree, refining the idea into a simple paragraph of no more than twenty or so words, that your granny would understand and covers the 5 W's (what is it, who would use it, when would they use it, where they would use it, why they would use it & how they would use it). Ideally also add a picture of your product and you now have a visual concept which you can use to gain people's views & opinions on...
Following on from developing your big idea & concept, a couple of other questions might now arise that might need some reflection...
- What is the implication of the above questions?
- Where does this now take you?
- What are your options?
- How many different ways can this idea be implemented?
- Which are the best / strongest?
You are now in the realm of strategy development...
Thursday, 18 September 2008
Friends are either lying or are idiots (according to Scott Adams)
Well according to the creator of Dilbert, Scott Adam's, there's a simple rule to remember about friends and whether they're being disingenuous about your ideas (although in his context he's talking about writing a comic strip).
Don't listen to your friends who tell you your comics are hilarious. They're lying. Don't listen to your friends who tell you your comics suck. They're idiots. The only reliable feedback is the copy test, i.e. does someone want to copy your comic and show it to someone else who you don't know. If someone says he likes your comic but he doesn't ask to copy it for someone else, he doesn't really like your comic.
Wednesday, 17 September 2008
We suck and we love to fail!
One of the key elements of Improvisation is to accept that the process doesn't always work, but when it does, the discovery is worth it. Its like making real gold out of commonal garden materials, that people see & use everyday, but don't always see the gold for themself. And its important to recognise & embrace that the process requires failure before there can be any gold.
With all of that in mind, the improvisation group have a motto which we embrace at the start of every session..."We suck and we love to fail!"
I somehow think we should all embrace that motto a bit more - not just if you have an idea but also in every aspect of life...
Roll with the punches
I just came in off the street & basically doorstepped the customer.
Now looking back on it was a bit of a risky strategy. Here's me just coming in off the street & asking potentially sensitive questions about this person's business without knowing really who I am or what I do. I was rather naive.
But the funny thing is this week's experience hasn't knocked me down. In the past I would be taking a regulatory standing 8 count.
Instead this seems to have unlocked a couple of other avenues to explore & to chase down previous doors. So for example I chased down a friend of a friend who does this as her day job & she's called me back so at least this way she kind of knows who I am & what I’m doing.
The other idea was to address a specific setback I had, as I'd hoped that this customer might be willing to participate in my test. So instead of moping about I’ve now thought why not advertise in a trade publication & see if there are any takers for doing a test in return for an expected revenue stream of a few hundred pounds per week.
So generally feeling good about these things even though they're not the best of news!
Bottom Up!
But it has also meant I've focussed in making it big quickly which brings about specific problems & risks, spending chunks of cash to get scale, securing large multinational retailers etc.
Today as I walked to the tube I realised that for me to be NO WORSE OFF versus my current package, would take significantly lower scale than my top down expectation - actually under 5% of my distribution target & I'd be confident I could get that by walking round on my own calling in the outlets or through a couple of trade shows.
Now while that's good to know I'm still aiming for the top down version, but at least it highlights that actually the risk of going it alone is within my own power. The only drawback to going piecemeal on the bottom up version is that exposes myself to risk that somebody with the resource & contacts in the industry could really exploit my idea x get it to the big idea quicker than my incremental way.
Saturday, 6 September 2008
Ranting & Raving
My business buddy had suggested he wanted to see a publically known inventor who was offering his “services” for £250 for an initial assessment, patent search and then if they thought it was a strong enough idea they would help & support the budding inventor for a stake in their company. So it’s Dragon's Den where in stead of getting money off the Dragon's you give them cash up front, and then they take a share of your success later on…
And the thing that REALLY annoyed me more than that was to think that this shower could offer us anything we either didn't know in advance from our own experiences or could easily get from one of our friends / colleagues. We have patent attorneys on hand, normal lawyers, accountants, designers, graphic artists, to name just a few… And never mind that we both have over 30 years of experience in Sales & Marketing…
So why did he need their help? Was it an insecurity that we couldn’t do any of the things that we had to do? Was it a lack of confidence in his idea? If that was the case why couldn’t he take his idea to a consumer panel to get their views? I didn’t understand his motivation for wanting to spend money & give a chunk of cash to these “clowns” (not very professional but I think that’s what I called them in my tirade!!!)
And now a few weeks later, he’s spent his money with this guy and when he told he had had a reply, he was punching the air – because somebody independent believes in his idea. I never thought he questioned his confidence in his idea, but I suppose we all do at some point. And now he has a palpable boost of energy for his idea in a similar way that I had a few weeks ago when I came up with my bodged production line. So I was wrong… it was worth the money to pay these “muppets” (again another word I may have used in the heat of battle!!).
And through all of this, I kept thinking… if they can have a business plan for what they do perhaps I too can beat them at their own game… may be a thought for another time…
Tuesday, 2 September 2008
Am I Daunted?
And I do.
I'll be dealing with big scary market leading companies, massive multinationals with market capitalisation's of billions of pounds. I'll be dealing with technology that I don't fully understand, but have a rough idea of how it works. I'll be juggling a whole load of things to make it work. I'll potentially be dealing with Venture Capitalists, seeking large chunks of wonga. I could be investing moolah in advertising and I will certainly be recruiting people to help build my idea into a profitable solution.
Of course I feel daunted but I don't necessarily feel scared. And that to me is really weird. I'm not scared but I sometimes feel daunted. This is a gargantuan mountain to climb, but I feel it can be scaled because the idea in itself is simple, easy and relatively universal.
Am I in denial at just how mind boggling big and difficult this idea will be to make it take off? Actually, now I come to think of it, making this idea work is the simple stuff - its the long term growth that feels more daunting - continually recruiting consumers into my idea and in turn building long term loyalty & repeat. Ok... now I'm a bit scared!
Its a bit of David & Goliath moment - I know I can hit anything with my stone & sling, and hitting this big giant smack in the right place will lead him to fall. So I'm ready to take on the giant but I better get my aim right and find a big enough stone!
Questions, questions questions...
In my mind there are FIVE key questions that the test will answer...
- Does it work?
- How appealing is it to consumers?
- How appealing is it to the trade?
- What is the right price point?
- Can I sell 100 of these in a week?
From these I'll have more confidence around different components in my business plan and will highlight the areas that I'll need to focus on in the next stage.
For example, I'll have over a 100 consumers to evaluate the likely appeal rates. I think I'm being quite conservative & cautious at the moment so that will be a good measure to be more certain about.
The other big area that the test will answer is about awareness and whether or not I need a high level of awareness to begin with or whether I can rely on the customer's authority & trust with the consumer - if that's the case I probably don't need £8m marketing spend in year 1!
So... I need to know answers to these questions as I can see a crossroads in my commercial strategy coming up. Certain answers make the case for going one way significantly more appealing than other directions.
Je Suis Le Grande Homme!
Diversion
Friday, 29 August 2008
REGULATORS! Mount Up!
Today my "bodged" production line gave birth to 4 prototypes.
So now I just have to crank up the production to be able to handle a few hundred of these every day... hmmm... easy then! Oh and that's just for the test - I need to build a way of making 6 billion pa for the real thing...
But I'll worry about that another day. Today its worthwhile to just reflect on the journey thus far and take the time to punch the air!
Tuesday, 19 August 2008
Formula for Success
Worryingly I came across this when I was cycling the other day (is it me or do some ideas just come when you don't think about it - something to do with subconscious thinking - is that not what Malcolm Gladwell's book Blink is all about?)
Anyway, my formula for success is
Can + Will = Have
Can is the opportunity and / or the capability. e.g. I can do this.
Will is the level of application, the determination, the zeal with which one attacks the Can. e.g. I will do this.
Have is the result of Can & Will. e.g. I have done this.
And here's the logical proof, if I don't Have, I must therefore not have the Can and or the Will.
Furthermore, the inverse holds true, i.e. if I Can't or Won't then I will never Have.
So I will now be challenging myself and others who are involved in this that if they have the Can and the Will, then we will Have.
Quite profound for a Tuesday...
Scrapheap Challenge
For the past year or so, I've been wrestling with the concept, getting excited one moment and the next losing it all when I come across a barrier, and then over time regrouping and trying to overcome the barriers and starting the whole loop all over again.
But now I can kind of see my way through it all and I'm buoyed up by this vision. I think the point of clarity really came when I worked out how I was actually going to do my test, as this then answers many questions. And once I have answered these questions it gave me a sense of direction and momentum behind my direction, that any future obstacles can be answered.
I have been able to "bodge" together a way of making the test happen. The solution is not ideal and will work in a completely different way to how I envisage the long term solution. However, the test version will look identical to the consumer as it will in the long term solution, so I think the bodge is a good proxy for reality. And who knows, the bodge version might actually be refined into offering a simpler solution than the one I currently envisage...
The reason for this bodged solution is basically because I don't know what I don't know about how it will work and I also don't have the money or time to perfect a solution that will work over the long term. So I'm hoping I'll be able to learn loads from the test to help me with the long-term solution and hopefully find me some short cuts and / or cost savings.
But its not all sorted - I still have some things to do to get the test off the ground in October...
- Speak to a customer
- Get a customer to agree to do the test (only a small ask!!!)
- Develop the technical solution (I've only got the theory sorted - I still need to make it work!)
- Test the technical solution in advance of the actual test
- Develop & get legal opinion on the terms & conditions of sale
- Understand the implications of the Data Protection Act
- Develop the customer proposition - what's in it for them...
- Develop an "insight" for the consumer need that underpins all the consumer communication
- Develop & make some POS
- Get public liability insurance (don't want a hefty legal bill if it doesn't work or cause damage to somebody / something!)
- Oh... and develop the actual product!!!!!!
So all in all, I'm feeling energised behind making the test work as I now know how I'm going to make it work and also what I'll do once I've done the test, and I know I still have lots to do and not that long to bring it life...
Thursday, 31 July 2008
Diving in....
Monday, 21 July 2008
Free and easy...
My rollercoaster continued today as I researched one of my business ideas.
Surfing the web I came across a number of services that offered something pretty close to what I had imagined I would offer... and my heart sank! They all looked very professional, very sleek and talked about their benefits. Bollox! Why did I think I could do this? They look good, they know what they're doing and they're already up & running (one company talked about being established back in the day of 1988!).
I was up against the proverbial ropes, but I had put myself there. I had allowed my doubt to eat away at my confidence. I felt I had been there before, there was something re-assuring in my doubt... surely I looked into this before I had this idea? And then I remembered the whole reason behind my idea - the opportunity that all these other supplier had conveniently left out though left out a critical element... their price!
My whole point (my USP, as a poncy management guru might say) is my service is FREE! Now I know just how powerful that word is - according to Asda its the most powerful word in a marketeer's thesaurus (and "New" is the second most powerful word, by the way!). Now being free means I have to get scale (i.e. a high number of people to use this service) in order for the business model to work and to get that scale I need to make it remarkably easy to use for all - so easy that my granny should be able to use it. But what the research did tell me was that I also need to offer absolute reliability.
So I need to remain focussed & single minded behind the real power of my idea... free, easy to use and reliable - and ignore any distractions of confidence!
Saturday, 19 July 2008
Darkest hour before dawn...
Tuesday, 1 July 2008
BIG COMPANY PLODDING, small entrepreneurial nimble thinking
Throughout the presentation, stuck in a hot room, I kept thinking a couple of things...
Firstly, that I don't fit into the mould for my current employer. I am a maverick, and I'm not being big headed or vain about saying that. I clearly straddle two functional bases at work - marketing & sales - and have thus far been able to generate a role with feet in both camps. But the flip side of that is I don't have a firm home to which I belong at my current employers.
Secondly, all through the presentation I kept thinking - this is great stuff for my employer, but its not for my company. I think today I realised just how BIG COMPANY THINKING my thinking on my idea actually is. My idea, and making it happen, is currently framed in the context of a top FTSE 100 company executing the idea, as opposed to a small nimble operator who has an idea and gets on with it.
I'm reminded of a friend who started his own company & product in something like 7 weeks, and he was able to do this because all he had to do was get approval from himself and make it happen. He could change as he went along. He didn't need thousands or hundreds of thousands of pounds to bring it alive. I can't ever imagine bring something to life within a big company atmosphere in 7 months never mind in 7 weeks!
So how can you get the best out of BIG COMPANY THINKING and mesh it with nimble thinking? What is nimble thinking? I need to find out...
Monday, 30 June 2008
How do you eat an Elephant?
And that's really what Innovation is all about as well. Looking at the enormity of the task at hand - to launch an new idea - can seem very very daunting. There are two things that are required to take the fear out of the task...
Firstly, break the task down into bite size morsels. It may seem counter intuitive, but start at the end, as this will focus the attention on the goal. Clarify what is the objective and think SMART - though I like to change Achievable with Ambitious as I believe Achievable is already connected with Realistic.
Once you have the goal set, work back and think about the things that are required to make that task happen. For example, if I set out that I wanted to make a cup of tea, I would first off define how I like my tea. Then I would have to work out the steps in the reverse order... serve the tea, stir the tea, put milk back in fridge, add the milk, take the milk out of the fridge, dunk the tea bag, add the water, place tea bag in mug, find mug, turn the kettle on, fill the kettle... Now I have the work flow set out, run through it in the correct order and see if it makes sense or if anything is missing. Now all that is left to do is to add in accurate timings & allocate resources to the
The second thing you need is perseverance & determination. And bags of it. Some little tools to help here... set time limits on each of the task outlined above. Make commitments to others, as you are more likely to do them. Allocate time during the week to do them (e.g. a Sunday evening). Keep it alive by constantly referring back to it, perhaps by keeping a copy of the plan in a workbook and checking progression daily - this will ensure that there's a sense of achievement & progression which in turn will revitalise the energy & input into the project - a virtuous engine.
Its simple... but that of course is how so many ideas have come to life... not in one big gulp, like a gigantic python with a dislocating jaw, but more of patient and determined single bite at a time.
Wednesday, 25 June 2008
Ignorance is bliss....
First of all, my assumptions about how the customer operates have been confirmed. The systems and procedures are even more detailed than I suspected, which means the implementation of my idea will be even easier. Brilliant!!!
The other side of that coin, is that it actually becomes easier therefore for the customer to go & do it themselves. My idea would have little or no intellectual protection as its
So this then presents me with some dilemmas to ponder...
- Do I still go ahead as is, and take the risk that they might nick the idea?
- Do I think about how I could get them on board without developing their own idea?
- Do I make the idea more complicated to make it difficult for them to copy for themselves?
- Do I change tack completely, and develop a strategy that minimises their input?
- Do I go to them with the idea and develop jointly?
Just in that one conversation I have gleaned so much yet its also rocked my confidence - I've wondered if I am right to take time off work, never mind go ahead and seek investment & launch!!!
I need to reflect that I am now in a better place than I was before yesterday, and that now I can quantify their systems and have identified the risk of them taking this idea on their own as more realistic. Ignorance may be bliss, but I now have the power to make the right choice...
Monday, 23 June 2008
The first £100...
This is has been invaluable for several reasons:
- Focus on the achievable
- By focusing on the achievable, it means it won't get too complicated, either in the start up or as an ongoing concern
- By making it achievable, it means it can be tested and the offering in turn revised prior to full set up
First step taken...
Friday, 13 June 2008
Qu'est-ce que c'est "Buddy"?
I've buddied up with an old colleague who is also at the same stage in thinking of starting his own business and we have dedicated 2 hours a week to bounce ideas around each other's business plans.
Here's how it works - we take it in turns to focus on each other's idea - being coach, mentor, challenger and inspirer of the other one. We bat around the topics that are bugging us, that are stopping us from progressing, and examine new ways round those barriers we have encountered. In essence, we are helping each other through each step of the journey. At the end of the session a committment on what is to be done in the next 2 weeks is made, with a penalty that if you don't do it then you put £20 on the table - so there's a strong motivation to move forward!
Its a classic quid pro quo arrangement - in return for me helping him, he helps me. Its not competitive (well so far its not been!) because we are looking at completely different things as a business and we know the value in helping each other out.
So far there have been 5 benefits for me...
- Sharing the load - I can now share my problems, worries & frustrations with somebody who is also in the same boat, who I know won't be judging me or who I worry won't want to invest in my business plan, where as in the past I've been trying to justify why my idea is great!
- Challenging my perspective & offering a fresh perspective - I've been carrying my business idea around in my head for just over a year and I've "landed" certain ways of developing my idea, and in just one session I've re-considered those ideas, making them something that can actually happen by my impact, not waiting for somebody else to stump or the cash or make something happen - it is now in my own hands!
- Excitement & re-energised - The new ideas and the challenges have made me not only feel more confident in my idea, but also that I don't need to wait for other people for me to realise this idea. I can take small steps on my own, making it less of a leap when I need others (i.e. money men!) to come on board.
- Committed - I now know I have a number of smaller tasks to complete in the next two weeks and have a defined deadline, which makes me more commited
- Less scary - by breaking the tasks down into things I can do right now, and making them to be delivered in the next two weeksmakes them far more tangible, and makes me feel that I can make it happen.
Monday, 9 June 2008
Danger! Danger! High Voltage!!!
Wednesday, 21 May 2008
How to write a business plan - my thoughts...
The basic structure is as follows:-
Executive Summary
The Opportunity - The situation, the idea, how it works and the key benefits to the user
Strategy - objectives & mission; product strategy; marketing strategy; distribution strategy; financial & risk management strategy; strategic alliances; dashboards
Company Information - location; objectives & mission; ownership; start-up funding; legal (including Intellectual Property); Company KPI's
Product - product objectives & strategy; product description; competitors; technical solution; npd opportunities; competitive advantage; product KPI's; product budget
Marketing - marketing strategy & objectives; market information; market trends & consumption patterns; consumer identification & segmentation; consumer insight; brand definition & essence wheel; price positioning; advertising & promotional activity; new & expanding market opportunities; marketing KPI's; marketing budget
Distribution - distribution objectives & strategy; routes to consumer; distribution structure & segmentation analysis; distribution insights; number of distribution points & share; distribution marketing & communication; distribution pricing positioning & strategy; distribution KPI's; distribution budget
Strategic Alliances & Corporate Affairs - corporate affairs objectives & strategy; stakeholder mapping; stakeholder management; corporate affairs KPI's; corporate affairs budget
Financial & Risk Management - financial & risk management objectives & strategy; proposed business model; finance KPI's; projected profit / loss and balance sheet; key ratios; cash collection & bad debt; overall risk identification & mitigation plan; risk KPI's; finance & risk management KPI's
People - people objective & strategy; management structure; organisational structure; role profiles; cultural values; policies; people KPI's; people budget
Appendix - all relevant background documents referred to above
I have also developed a summary business plan which really just outlines the opportunity, the financial modelling, KPI's and key next steps. This I am envisaging will help gauge attractiveness of the idea by key stakeholders, before I put too much work into the main business plan.
One other thing I've developed along side either of these two documents is a non-disclosure agreement, to enable the discussion of key pertinent facts with friends and potential investors and still protect your intellectual property.
Over and above these documents, I still have to develop my pitch to potential investors.