Wednesday, 17 November 2010

Starting Up In A Recession

I was recently asked by an old colleague who is thinking of starting her own business whether she should start a business in a downturn or not...

At first I thought about giving the "standard" response about historical examples of businesses that started in recessions such as Microsoft, but then I thought better of rolling out that cliche.

Starting a business always carries a degree of risk and depending upon the type of business being started, the general macro economic factors can have a massive impact, just ask Woolworth creditors and shareholders...

But I have a slightly more pragmatic viewpoint... Unless you have funny shaped crystal balls, you'll never know if it's going to be a recession or a boom time, and frankly don't try to guess it either.

What is far more important than timing is whether or not customers actually need only your product or service, in boom AND bust times.If the answer to that is yes, then go ahead and start in a recession as you will probably succeed.

So spend the time understanding what customers need and whether or not you can meet their needs better than anybody else rather than spendign time worrying about recessions or boom times.

There's only 3 things you can sell to a business

I have been working on a number of b2b projects recently and what I have discovered is that everything they do with their clients boils down to either one of three things or a combination of three things.

Before I disclose the three things, some wider thoughts...

Businesses like people have needs. And they only buy products or services that meet those needs. But unlike people, businesses are massively motivated by the power of money, either spending it or creating it - that is their raisin d'ĂȘtre. To enable them to make money, they have a number of drivers, which in turn each have a number of supporting elements.

But no matter what sector, nor the size of the business, the need for buying a product or service comes down to one or a combination of these three things which fits with their core supporting elements

1. Sell more
2. Save more
3. Solve more

So quiz yourself the net time pitching to a company to ensure you are able to demonstrate to one or a combination of the three things....

Will this sell more of their products? Will it make them more money? Will they increase their frequency of purchase or their spend per purchase?

Will it save them money? Even if they have to spend more money to get this product or service will it make them more efficient over the long term on the basis of an Internal Rate of Return?

Does it solve a problem better than they can solve it themselves? Does this problem stop them or slow their business down?

And if you don't have an emphatic "Yes" to any of those questions, don't waste their time...

Thursday, 21 October 2010

Returning to the scene of the crime

Today I returned to my old employer's office on a social visit.

The visit brought out mixed emotions in me. It was nice to see everybody but it was also a bit depressing to see everybody there, still going about their normal routine.

I went there to help an old colleague who is leaving to set-up on her own and also gain her help on a couple of my own ideas.

We spent some time chatting about what it feels like leaving, our different reasons for leaving and then discussed her ideas and plans.

Bizarrely enough, her main idea is in an area similar to one of my own, but with a different perspective. Her idea is aimed at an earlier stage to mine, and there could be quite a lot of synergies, especially around the marketing and networks we develop.

One of the things we chatted about was about how she should get after her idea once she left... passionately working on her own vs tailoring her proposition to the needs of the customers... Should she focus solely focus on her passion, bunker down for a couple of months, developing her own solution bouyed by her passion and then take it out into the big bad world? Or should she go out and see what people want and then develop something from that, which she might not feel that passionate about?

I suggested doing both.

Developing the outline of her proposition and then getting feedback from her potential customers and then in turn taking that feedback, developing it more and seeking more feedback so that by the end of it you have something which is relevant to the customer but also something she could be passionate about it.

I think & feel that she's got a great idea and will be able to offer something amazing for her customers and I look forward to seeing how it develops...

Tuesday, 12 October 2010

Incentives

I've been pondering incentives & penalties recently, and how they can influence people's behaviours, probably because of books I've been reading on Economics / Game theory and also events over the summer with my business buddy.

As I've said earlier, I am an equal partner in a business with my business buddy, and over the last 6-9 months, not much has happened. To some degree we haven't moved forward that much. That isn't strictly true, as we did have a major rethink in May about our product range & strategy, but essentially we're still where we were in January in that we have a web site set up, ready for trading.

Over the summer, I could have easily intervened in the inertia and made something happen, as is very much in my personality. However, I chose not to. I did what I perceived what I thought was a fair amount of work and no more. But why stop at that?

I felt that any work I did beyond my "fair share" would not reward me beyond my 50% of the share capital. I felt that my partner would be "unfairly" rewarded for my extra work, as he was focussed on something else, of far more importance and he had admitted he hadn't given the fair level of input to the project.

But perhaps that is not logical. Currently I am earning zero dividends from that share capital because there are zero sales because the outstanding work has to be completed. If I had made the interventions, then I would have at least a chance of earning something. So therefore I could justify my intervention.

However, I think, on balance I did the right thing. Simply put, it is impossible to have an exact "fair share" of the workload between two parties, and I accept that. Also, it would have set a precedent which I would not be happy or willing to live up to in the future - my business buddy can clearly see the impact that he has in the business and also that I have in the business.

So what's my solution on how to solve this problem in the future? It comes down to having a fair and transparent guideline for the share capital. The premise of 50:50 share capital is intact, but it slides depending upon how much time and how many of the actions are put into the business.

This is how it could work in practice...

All parties agree a nominal value for the business... perhaps its £1,000, with the share of the value of the business being determined by who does what, on the basis of time. Basically the longer it takes to do, the more shares you get. It could be engineered to ensure a 50:50 split, if the time taken was equally split.

We need to make sure that there is no "inflation" in the complexity of the tasks being set. For example, it might only take me 30 minutes to upload 10 products onto a web page, but if I was being devious I might claim that it will take me 2 hours. That would be "cheating" so I could quadruple my share capital. But there's also the view that I can do things quicker than the other party and vice versa. So how do we get round the problem of inflation and efficiency?

My way round this is for the tasks not to have any owners at first, and each party individually estimates the amount of time it would take to complete the task. The parties then combine their times for each task and take the lowest time for that task as the "currency" for that task (remember the more time spent on the work = greater share capital).

The parties then bid for ownership of that task, with every bid reducing the estimate of time for that task (i.e. reducing the share capital value of that task), therefore driving down the cost until it becomes optimally efficient (why would I bid for something that would take longer than I thought it would!). If nobody "bids" for ownership of that task then the party who estimated the shortest time for that task ends up owning that task. This reduces the risk that parties will under call the time it to do a task that they don't know how to do but spoil if for the expert in that field.

As an example, say the action is to develop a web page. Now I might not know anything about web page development (which isn't far from the truth!). But my partner does know about web page development. Now if I was being devious I could undervalue this task by estimating a significantly lower value, so that my partner ends up with lower capital. But by making the lowest estimate the winner, it means I would be shooting myself in the foot because I would then have to learn web development thus spending valuable time that I could spend on other tasks where I could be more efficient with my time and therefore earn more capital.

So by now, we know how long all the actions should take and the corresponding level of capital each action offers, and we should also have bided on each action ensuring a "fair" split of capital. Now, we introduce an incentive to finish the task on time by having a deadline. If the deadline on that action is missed, then both parties have an equal chance to complete the action and increase their share capital.

One last thing to introduce would be a floor level of shares for an individual to ensure that if an unforeseen event comes up meaning that one of the parties can't complete their tasks, then they are not wholly penalised and end up with zero.

This only really works if there is trust & respect for each party. If you don't have that level of trust you shouldn't get into business with each other! If you don't respect the other party then you probably don't need them, so why get involved with them in the first place???

Bearing in mind trust & respect, interestingly in Tim Harford's book "The Logic of Life", he quotes the authors of Freakonomics arguing over the split of any future revenues before they started to write it. They both dug their heels on demanding a 60:40 split of the revenues, but each party had wrongly assumed that the other one had wanted the 60, when actually they thought their own contribution was worth 40. It was only after they both realised their mistakes that the agreed to do the book. That's an interesting view in how to run a partnership - only enter into ones where you are valued more than you value yourself!

Another interesting dilemma on incentives is with a friend who recently offered me a "cut" of any business I bring him. Nothing wrong in that, but it doesn't feel right with me nor does it actually incentivise me to send him work. I think it's something to do with the fact that the cut is not worth my reputation in sending him the work and also something about "karma". I feel it would be bad karma only to pass on work for the basis of a cut and not on the quality of the work itself. Perhaps that's the actual point... I really don't know how good he actually is and until that I won't recommend him, no matter how much of a cut he gives me!

The Moron Magnet

The last six months have been great. A long overdue trip to see friends around the world and to get set for working on my own. A brilliant start to my freelance life. More opportunities than I can shake a stick at...

Despite all the great things, one thing has been a great annoyance - my moron magnet. It seemed that everyday I would become frustrated with something and / or someone. It just seemed to take ages for anything to happen.

And it took an old colleague and fellow freelancer to point out to me that it wasn't me, just a couple of things compounding together.

First of all, in my old job, I was surrounded by intelligent & motivated people. They had to be to get let in the car park in the morning. On a daily basis, we would be engaging in small talk, corpoate problem solving and sparking ideas off each other. Now, that has to a greater / lesser degree disappeared, certainly on a daily basis. I would argue that the level of interaction I now have is significantly lower in the intellectual horsepower stakes than I once did (as ever there are exceptions to that rule) and that worries me a bit, in so much that my own intellectual horsepower will diminish, in a form of cerebral atrophy. To me this was an unforeseen cost of going freelance.

The second thing was that in my old job, I was somewhat cushioned from the outside world. For example, I didn't have to buy stationery, I just went to the cupboard and found a pen sitting there when I needed it, usually just before I went into a meeting. I didn't have to worry about the corporate credit card being set up - it was already set up. I didn't have to worry about the coporate mobile phone. And even if I did have to worry about these things, I still had the power of my employer behind me, which meant I could phone up a dedicated helpline and get things sorted out with the seeming efficiency & importance that I thought I had, but was probably more likely due to the company I worked for. Now, the cushion has been removed and I am sitting on the cold, hard seats just like everybody else.

Those two factors compounded each other... Getting a fully working bank account should not take 12 weeks, but it did. I was flabbergasted. But it seems that's just "normal". That orders placed on the internet for business goods would either not appear, delivered to the wrong address or would be delivered despite leaving a calling card saying that I had to pick it up at the "local" depot (which turned out to be a 30 minute drive away) only to find out when I got there that they had already delivered the item to an different address and didn't have my signature.

All of this, perversly, gives me great hope. There is a great deal of opportunity out there for entrepreneurs willing to take on the morons and beat them... I, for one, will be a very loyal customer!

Wednesday, 19 May 2010

New Job

I've been in my new job as a self-employed entrepreneur for eleven working days now, and basically it's just like any new job...

I'm getting to grips with where my desk is, where I can get my lunch and all the paperwork of a new job.

I'm becoming more comfortable at my desk which varies from being either quiet areas of The British Library, The Royal Academy, my bank, a shared workspace for the outplacement agency secured through my ex-employer or at home (though that's not ideal). I hear that there are plans for more dedicated office space in the future, but as yet they are just rumours...

My boss is quite good. He's quite understanding and has laid out a general objective for the next three months - basically to find my feet. I think we'll need to have quite an in-depth conversation about my priorities and detailed objective plan in the coming weeks.

My colleagues are pretty quiet, but I plan to see them on a more regular basis, just to mull over stuff in my head and also to get their perspective on the job. May be I can help them too...

The paperwork seems to be death by a 1,000 cuts. Fill out this form, wait two weeks, fill this out... but it's not too bad. The Bank made me feel like I was a lottery winner by providing three people at the meeting and flattering me with free office space and support - just need the cheque now!

It's living up to expectations in terms of freedom... In terms of actual work, well that seems a little slower than I expected, but I always expect to become a master of a job in the first couple of weeks when in reality it takes 3-6 months before you actually even know where the coffee machine is and what your colleagues names are! It's all a learning experience...

Saturday, 20 March 2010

Breaking Up Is Sometimes The Best Thing To Do...

For the past little while I've been using an analogy of romantic relationship to explain my situation with my employer.

We've been "going out" for 8 years and had, generally, a happy time. We've experienced a lot together, had fun and challenged each other. We've even been on holiday together sometimes for a city break (Rome, Barcelona, Frankfurt, Miami, Glasgow, Edinburgh etc) or proper adventures in far off lands, such as Japan.

But over the last couple of years we've both been asked, at separate junctures, about the future together. It's the type of questions your friends & family ask you after a bit in a relationship... "Is she the one for you?", "When are you getting married?" etc. I've been asked and ask myself that question and I know my employer has asked that question of me too.

And I think the answer comes something like this...

We both enjoy each other's company and get lots out of it. But it's just missing that little something...

For me what's missing is "growth". We have grown together, but it's not clear where else there is to grow. The company has its own ideas about where it's going, and I don't want to be part of that - it's not a bad place, just not a place I can see myself enjoying or find emotionally rewarding. The simple fact is I can't see myself happy together in 10 years time, despite all the fun, comfort & security I have now. And from the company's point of view, I've been clearly told they value me and want to make this work. However I'm not convinced that it can work for the long term - possibly a couple of years but not the long term.

If I'm frank, I've felt inferior ever since we started out - I felt I was chancing my arm and was playing above my league in life. And being insecure is never a great place for a relationship to flourish!

So should we both just be happy together because we're both "comfortable"? Or should we not waste each other's time in a sham of a relationship that ain't going nowhere for both of us and call it quits in an amicable and clean way? Well, we know the answer to that...

But the weird bit is that whilst working in Germany I was reminded of why this relationship is great - the values & behaviours of the people in the company. I'm not saying I am having second thoughts about my intended route, just that the frustration has ebbed away and I'm left thinking only about the good times.

When this is all over, I suspect we will remain close friends.

Serendipity?

As part of my crap juggling act, I intend to do some contracting to keep the cash rolling in, doing a mix of sales & marketing, innovation support and capability building.

I've deliberately chosen not to be proactive on this for two reasons:-
1) I am still employed and have had several false dawns when it comes to the next stage, such as my request for career break, so I would rather wait until I am well and truly on the outside before being proactive.
2) I NEED a holiday. I am shattered physically and feeling a bit in denial about the end of this chapter so I think I will need a month's R&R to help me transition.

But here's the funny thing... in the last month I've been approached by FIVE different people to do some kind of work for them, ranging from training, selling and commercial consultancy.

I know this is all down to the power of my network and how well I nurture that network. I need to be focused on it is that I offer and be clear on how I communicate it. If I'm candid, that's the bit I probably need the space & time for - I'm not quite sure what it is that I offer...

Do I offer something unique in a "jack of all trades" kind of way? A unique blend of innovation, commercial & marketing capability? Or do I focus on one particular feature and become an expert (Don't get me started on experts!!!)? Expert in Innovation? Expert in Customer Investment strategies? Or do I offer them all, but communicated in different ways...

Friday, 26 February 2010

Home or Away

One of my worries about the next step is how I behave in the first few months.

I need to make sure I don't treat it as an extended holiday (part of the reason I'm having a longish holiday straight away after I finish up). I need to keep busy and get up early (not always a thing I do well).

I worry that I will find diversions at home, to such a degree I am contemplating getting rid of my TV (a strategy I adopted successfully during my finals) and PS3. But I know I will find other diversions even without these, and I think they're rather drastic.

My big idea to help me transition and getting into the working spirit is to join a club, such as Soho House, One Alfred Place, Adam Street or some such place... I did have a thought about getting a serviced office, but bizarrely a private club is about half the cost of a serviced office.

My other thought is to wear a suit everyday, make me feel like I'm working, make it different from "normal" every day wear. This is something I used to do at work (I know that sounds funny but in work everybody wears jeans) but now I only wear a suit when I cycle into work.

Wednesday, 24 February 2010

Eight Years in Three Words: Fun Challenge Experience

Upon reflecting about my eight years with my last employer, I have been trying for the last several weeks to put all that time into context. There's been ups and downs (mostly ups), but there's been more than that.

What I wanted to say ended up being cliches... "the people are what make a business and there's lots of great people here... blah blah blah..." all of which is very true, but rather dull (may be it's what they want to hear - some affirmation that those remaining are making the right choice by staying).

So I have been wrestling with being honest (or in the latest buzzword at work "authentic") about my eight years, without hiding the bad times or from the people that I have pissed off and who have annoyed me. I do not want to rose tint the real world into a fairy tale version suitable for the mass market. However I also don't want to create a black & white view of my last eight years that jar people's view of me or their view of the company.

I need it to be both honest and universal. Those two characteristics don't play well together. They stink of principle and ideology. And principles, especially universal ones, usually mean they won't stand up in the real world (and if you hadn't guessed yet, I'm a realist!).

I ended up thinking about what the eight years have brought to me and I settled on three words (can you guess what they are???!) that summarised my tenure honestly, sincerely and (hopefully) neutrally.

But was it just my tenure? It began to dawn on me that actually this was something bigger... this could actually be my philosophy in life. And conveniently my reflection upon my employment over the last eight years had been like a mirror upon most (if not all) of the last 37.

Part of me disputes that on the basis of it's simply coincidence and / or post rationalisation. And to some degree it possibly is...
  • I do remember being 15, lying in a hospital and wanting desperately to have fun for the rest of my life, to not take life too seriously - I felt an enormous emotional rock lift off my shoulders at that point by not trying to take life too seriously.
  • I remember writing a list of ambitions at the age of 18 on the plane en route from seeing my dad in America, most of which had challenges on them (like scuba diving) - I need to dig out that list! Perhaps it was just teenage lust for life and some crazy ideas.
  • I recall always wanting to take the road less travelled. To do things differently, certainly as an adult, and certainly as I got older. To experience other lands and peoples such as Japan.

Regardless of whether they are post rationalised or have been drivers throughout my life, right now they fit my story of my life and what I want the rest of the chapters to unfold.

To ensure, that in the future I don't look back to post rationalise where I am right now, here's my meaning behind these three words.

Fun - to laugh & smile, especially in the face of crap. To realise the fun and enjoyment of living. Of stopping and smelling the roses. Of having harmless fun no matter where it can be found. Of just playing tig for no reason at all. Of doodling. To celebrate successes, especially the little ones. Of keeping hope alive, but not counting on it.

Challenge - to look for something as yet unconquered. To go after something yet unachieved. Of applying oneself. To progress and battle through. For that feeling of achievement. To understand that it's possible or to fall AND get back up. To try again. And again.

Experience
- not just in the sense of building up knowledge (although that is very relevant, given that new things interest me and I love reading non-fiction books and documentaries). From the sense of enjoying experiences. That all of life from the good and the bad, is an experience to be savoured and devoured with equal intensity. Good luck and bad luck are but sides of the same coin. To understand that we are all here only once and to embrace the comedy, drama and tragedy of life. And to realise the only bad experience is not experiencing enough...

Tuesday, 23 February 2010

What am I?

So the news is out there... I'm leaving!

And the immediate response from my colleagues is "Where are you off to?" and I stumble something out about starting my own business, which leads me into a cul de sac of "What are you starting?" and that's where I get lost.

I struggle to explain in one sentence what it is I'm planning to do... Do I say I'm going to a be a crap juggler? Don't think that sets me in the best light and it takes a bit longer to explain than a snappy one sentence. If I say internet retailing then it means ebay to some. Am I a property developer? Well not straight away, may be in a couple of years but that also brings about images of Sarah Beanie... Am I a coach? That seems to be a popular thing that everybody goes off to do. And I somehow judge a number of the other terms as being... well... naff...

Entrepreneur? Nah! It seems too grandiose. And it's french!
Business Angel? No way - I've got no money to invest!
Inventor? Am I really going to invent anything and I don't have a garden shed?
Founder? I think is retrospective - you can only be a founder once you have founded something
Impresario? Jeez! That sounds like I'm about to deliver an aria in an opera...

So what am I actually going to do? Basically, I'm taking a very improvised way and trying out a number of things and seeing what sticks... What is that called??? Chancer? Adventurer? Daredevil? Those terms are closer to the truth, but not close enough. The closest I can come up with is Improvised Capitalist...

Monday, 22 February 2010

Sacrifice

I am now only 5 weeks away from starting my new life and I am exited and daunted, all at the same time.

For nearly four years the idea has been in the ether. For nearly a year, this time has been in the planning. And now it's down to weeks...

Part of that planning has been about surviving for as long as possible, given that I put my chances of success about 1 in 5 (based on general consumer goods performance and also a Harvard study). And to help me do that I have to make my cash last as long as possible... Ideally in the region of 18 months to two years (that's how long I think it will take to know if I have something viable). And to do that with the money I've got, I need to shave a third off my usual expenditure.

About 4 months ago was the moment of truth... was I prepared to make sacrifices in my lifestyle so I could live my dream. Was I prepared to give up drinking to save money? Was I prepared not to drink 4 or 5 times a week, 4 or 5 beers at a time? If so, in theory that could mean an extra 2 months over the next year to make a success of my ideas

And alcohol wasn't the only sacrifice... I've gone through my lifestyle and reviewed those things that six months ago were "normal" but in the cold light of day are at best luxuries most would not have and at worst are "frivolous". Things like eating out more than once a week. An expensive sandwich made fresh in a shop when I can make it fresh at home.

Those sacrifices, I hope will allow me the time to reach my promised land

Idea Percolator

As I enter the next phase of the grand plan (Hang on! There's a plan????) I am filled with confidence, excitement, and shit scary ploppy pants.

What gives me confidence also gives me doubt.

I have a multitude of ideas. Fifteen at the last count... so if one doesn't work, then surely there's another one to try...

By the fact of having so many ideas also means that I can't get after one of them immediately with an all consuming passion. I worry that this means I won't put in all my energy to make any of the ideas a success.

But, to some degree by not getting after an idea with absolute intensity allows me to mull it over. It allows me to contrive "thought experiments" to understand the potential barriers and work out solutions before I invest a single pound. It's what I call my idea percolator...

Interestingly they're not all my ideas... Some of the ideas have come from friend's conversations, and they have sought me out, and I'm genuinely excited by that as I look forward to being the first person my friends turn to when they want to start their idea, using my expertise and, hopefully, capital.

Saturday, 16 January 2010

What price for a business plan? Its worth at least £200 to not bother with one...

My background is a mix of big companies and little companies, and one of the constants in all of these companies is the necessity of writing up how you plan to spend the money you're asking for. For all the differences in each company, they have all asked for a business plan for new products, new marketing strategies or change management programmes. My current employer needs 5 business plans to get a new product off the ground (albeit at different points in the process of innovation). And each business plan has to go through the hierarchy before it comes back down with the amends before it gets to the decision makers, who don't actually read it cover to cover, but simply skip to the financials, give their opinion (usually it's not big or quick enough). Each business plan takes a minimum of two weeks to pull together and covers a host of areas from production, marketing, sales, HR, finance, media relations, legal, IP, and distribution. It's an industry in itself, and for a while that's all I seemed to do (and all I thought that was necessary to do to make a new product a success).


Recently two things have struck me about the need for Business Plans.


First of all I haven't done one for the Internet venture I'm involved in with my Business Buddy. Only in the last couple of days have we been asked for a Business Plan. We didn't need one when setting up our business account at the bank. We didn't need one when opening accounts with our suppliers. We didn't need one when we were inviting web developers to pitch for building our site. We didn't need one to raise finance (it came from our own pockets!). We didn't need it to sort out the role profiles we were both going to undertake (we just agreed it between ourselves and got on with it). We didn't need it to set up the company with Companies House. We didn't need it to inform HMRC about our Tax status. We were only asked for it when we requested an Internet Merchant Account from a competitor bank. And the only reason we asked about that was our current bank were asking for £200 to set up an Internet merchant account. We've now decided to pay £200 rather than the hassle of developing a business plan. Our time needs to be spent on sourcing our products and sorting out the glitches on the web site with the blasted web developer (he hinted!). We're far more interested in learning how our business works than actually writing about how we think it could work.


Secondly, I recently read a blog about writing a Business Plan and it struck a chord, especially with my experience of writing Business Plans in my current employer. Business plans are a cacophony of... how can I put this... random guesses. I can't tell the future any better than anybody else. I, nor anybody else, has a special gift for predicting the future success of a business through a business plan or through tea leaves. And writing a business does not miraculously give me that insight into the future. Some people argue that without a Business Plan you won't know where you're going as you won't have planned what you're doing in a couple of years time. Couple of years?!?!?!?! Who's plans are actually accurate within a couple of months of launch???


My final thought about writing a business plan is the emotion that goes along with it. Writing a business plan is tiresome. It means checking and re-checking your numbers and words. And with every word that is typed, it means you are one more word away from actually doing something and that sets in motion a cycle of procrastination about getting the business plan right before you give it to people, before you get the funding, and before you start on your idea. I found with my last idea that when I gave up on writing my business plan, I actually picked up making my idea come alive. And with every step taken in setting up the idea came more energy. I was able to tinker it based on real evidence rather than "guesses".


As you can tell, I'm not an advocate of Business Plans, but I am an advocate for the thinking that a Business Plan promotes, and the challenge that arises from those thoughts, as opposed to keeping them safe in my
little head, secure in the knowledge that it's just my own thoughts. And there needs to be a balance between thinking and doing. So I suggest a business plan that can be written on the back of a fag packet and kept inside your head, while you get on with building your dream.