Where's my "black swan"?

Recently on holiday I read a great book, one that perhaps would change my life (if that is not too profound!!!). The book synthesised a great number of my thoughts & philosophies of life, while showing & clarifying a number of my own thoughts.

The book was The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Overall, the author seeks to establish that the world, especially the social science / economics / business world, is full of Black Swans. Black Swans are creatures that are unpredictable and have a massive impact, and after the fact are post rationalised into making a linear "story" to highlight how we should have seen it coming, and from this post rationalisation we can in turn predict the future by a process of extrapolation. For me it hit a chord across a number of different things in my life: my philosophy in life (how random it really is and how we never know what the future holds!); my relationships; my understanding of my emotions; my business plans and my plans for life.

The bits that really stuck out for me were in the final chapter and made me think and also made me laugh. In life, I need to gear up for where there is a positive Black Swan, while minimising the negative Black Swan. I looked at my current life and realised that the opportunities for allowing the positive Black Swans were severely limited, and in actual fact if a Black Swan was to happen it would probably more likely have a negative aspect to my life.

I realised that even if my employer had an unexpected positive result, say from a new product launch, then I would do well, but not that well. My only real upside was, at best, a promotion and a couple of extra grand in salary every year - all good, although a little on the low side of impact to my life as I would just have spent it all on beer (just like the rest of my salary!). However, if there was a negative Black Swan at my work it would really kick me in the ghoulies... I might lose my job, or my pension, or be demoted etc, and that Black Swan has come up time & time again both with my employer and others. In fact I'm not sure if it really is a Black Swan, given that over a long enough time frame it would happen so it is therefore predictable. At that point I became the turkey who realised that although I had been getting fed by the farmer everyday, tomorrow might be my last day before the chop...

I then started to think how far am I exposed to a negative Black Swan if I start on my own... Well... at worst case, it is NO WORSE than with my current employer as I end up without a job or a pension or I end up taking a job which is below my current level. But it might not be as bad as that if I have a negative Black Swan in my own business. I will have started my own business. I will have gained valuable experience, experience that I can "sell" to others as an employee. I will have broadened my horizons and opened myself up to far more positive Black Swans than I am currently exposed to. So even without a positive Black Swan, my life is no worse off. And that's without even thinking about what happens if there is a positive Black Swan - only massive upside, untold wealth, power and ultimate global domination!!!!!! Yeah right... But its got to be better than this.

So where's the option call?! It wasn't a difficult choice!!!!

A couple of things over & above the book that I was able to draw out, were about "not sweating the small stuff". There are enough distractions & stress points in life, and getting wound up by the relatively minor things that happen everyday doesn't help when the big impact stuff comes along. Reflecting on the book also helped me think that one should remain open to the possibilities that a Black Swan (positive or negative) can have - a Black Swan can be directly good / bad (i.e. its impact directly affects me) or indirectly (i.e. if I tweak / change something I can really take advantage / minimise this particular Black Swan). Finally, it made me focus on the direction of the voyage rather than the minutiae of what has to go right to make it happen. That particular thought gave me great reassurance.

In the final chapter, the bit that made me really laugh and resonated strongly was a quote - "Missing a train is only painful if you run after it!" (pg 297). Too true...